The Battery Power Almanac is back to soothsay the balance of the 2024 Atlanta Braves season predicated on the last four decades of “the 4’s”.
As the bleeps and blorps of technology send us all careening into the AI embankment, it is time to unplug, power down and pull out the Battery Power Almanac for some fine reading while sipping some iced tea and swatting mosquitoes.
Because in a time of the over-analysis of everything, why not throw advanced metrics out the window and just read the history books?
Does two years make a tradition? Since two years is all we have, it will have to work, as last year was the inaugural installment of the prognosticator’s guide to the Braves galaxy. The Battery Power Almanac (BPA) debuted its part analog, part voodoo, part witches brew and part toss-a-blade-of-grass-in-the-air-to-see-which-way-the-wind-is-blowing ode Farmer’s Almanac to see how the 2023 season would end-up.
Don’t laugh. From the postseason to individual awards to All-Star game appearances, the BPA ended up being right about a lot more stuff that it was wrong. Don’t believe us? Read it for yourself.
Like last year, we will take a look back at the prior four decades of Braves seasons ending in a “4” as a baseline to see about team and individual success for 2024.
A Disappointing 2024 Win Total
This part is a mixed bag of results, which makes the outcome of the 2024 season either hazier than a late-July afternoon in Atlanta or worth practicing your stress-reducing breathing exercises early this year.
With the strike-shortened 1994 season impacting win totals, we will take a look at projections based on winning percentage, which ain’t great.
BPA projects: 87-75
Yikes.
The 2014 and 1984 seasons were just under .500. The 1994 and 2004 season both either yielded or would have yielded 96ish win seasons.
With the 1984 team – the last of Joe Torre’s tenure at the helm as manager of the Braves – and the 2014 team both being the last competitive teams before an organizational rebuild, we’ll hope that the results from ’94 and ’04 speak more to this season’s reality with a win total in the upper 90s.
The history:
1984: 80-82
1994: 68-46
2004: 96-66
2014: 79-83
2024 Division and Postseason Question Marks
The ’84 Braves finished tied for second in the NL West. Famously, the ’94 squad was in second place in the NL East when the season ended but would have been in position to be the Wild Card team. The ’04 team won the NL East but lost to the Houston Astros in the NLDS. And like the ’84 team, the ’14 Braves finished tied for second in the division, but its below .500 record kept out of the playoffs.
The BPA isn’t feeling good about having history on the ’24 season’s side with it foretelling a second-place finish with a coin-flip for the playoffs without a deep run if they do make it.
So far, the BPA is like pouring gravy our of a skillet with two shaky hands – it’s really missing the boat.
The history:
1984: 2nd Place, NL West
1994: 2nd Place, NL East
2004: 1st Place, NL East (NLDS)
2014: 2nd Place, NL East
2024 All-Stars
Since team success doesn’t cater to all the wants-and-needs of the Braves fanbase, maybe individual success will be a little more of an on-the-nose prediction for the BPA.
The good news is that it sure looks like three Braves will be All-Stars. That’s quite a drop from the 2023 total but given injuries and some early-season performance issues, that could be more realistic that we’d like to believe.
Given that two-of-the-three All-Star Game starters from the past were outfielders – and with Murphy coming on the heels of one of his MVP Awards, BPA thinks Ronald Acuna, Jr. will take one of the spots.
BPA is not confident but will say the ’24 All-Stars will be Acuna, Jr., Matt Olson and Max Fried. At the start of the season, only three Braves All-Stars might seem unfathomable, but as we head into May, it seems more plausible than not.
Grab your Magic 8-Ball, because it could be any other three people on the roster as well with the baseballs carrying like a cardboard box. Micheal Harris II? Chris Sale? Orlando Arcia? Ozzie Albies? Someone from the bullpen?
Braves fans better vote early and often, this year.
The history:
1984: Dale Murphy* (CF), Rafael Ramirez (SS), Claudell Washington (RF)
1994: David Justice* (RF), Greg Maddux *(SP), Fred McGriff (1B)
2004: Johnny Estrada (C)
2014: Freddie Freeman (1B), Craig Kimbrell (RP), Julio Teheran (SP)
*- Starter
Postseason Awards
Everyone is making bets these days, or so it seems, from the parlance of gambling advertisements being spackled in every nook-and-cranny of media and stadiums. Remember when the only legal gambling was the Monopoly game from the golden arches? Those were the days.
Last year, it seemed like good wager to place some of your hard-earned money on the BPA predictions. Not this year unless you’re a Crypto-bro. If you aren’t swimming in more bitcoins than Scrooge McDuck, proceed at your own risk.
No Back-to-Back MVP
With no Braves player finishing higher than fifth in the past four “4’s” (although four players did finish in the top 10) it doesn’t look like Atlanta will have an MVP in 2024 according to BPA.
That 2004 team was wild. It is now known as “the J.D. Drew year” but maybe it should be known as “the Johnny Estrada year” too.
The history:
1984: Dale Murphy (9th)
1994: Greg Maddux (5th), Fred McGriff (8th)
2004: J.D. Drew (6th), Johnny Estrada (18th), John Smoltz (21st)
2014: Justin Upton (17th), Freddie Freeman (23rd)
Cy Young, There Is A Chance
Did you know that Cy Young played for the Braves? He did. Like Babe Ruth, he finished he career as a Brave more than 100 years ago.
That might be the most important thing the BPA is bringing to you today, outside of the reminder of how dominant Greg Maddux was in 1994.
There’s a shooter’s chance a Braves starter could win the Cy Young Award, but only in the “No! No! No! Yes!” way that a Josh Smith three-pointer might have gone in for the Hawks. Love you, Smoov.
Fried turned his April around. Chris Sale has been good. So maybe, just maybe one of those two guys will end the season on top.
The history:
1984: Nope.
1994: Greg Maddux – WINNER
2004: Nada.
2014: Craig Kimbrell (9th)
BPA Correctly Predicts No ROY
Take a win where you can get one. There won’t be a Rookie of the Year for the Braves this season. It’s a gimmie. We all need a gimmie occasionally. Boy does BPA need this one.
There isn’t a viable rookie option from the Braves this season barring the starting rotation being beset with injuries, so frankly, we’d rather not find out if a rookie starting pitcher could pick-up the award.
The history:
1984: Zilch.
1994: Ryan Klesko (3rd), Javy Lopez (10th)
2004: Zero.
2014: Nothing.
Best Of The Braves
You know, this isn’t working out the way we’d hoped. Maybe there’s hope for Manager of the Year (Bobby Cox won in 2004) or Reliever of the Year (Craig Kimbrell won in 2014) but frankly, we’re drawing straws at this point.
Using bWAR, which is as popular amongst many of you as this piece will most certainly turn out to be, here’s a look at the position player and pitcher who will lead the Braves in this famously overused stat.
Ronald Acuna, Jr. seems like a sure-fire bet given three of the four position players were outfielders. Like a lot of the Braves heavy-weight hitters, it has largely been a struggle for the reigning NL MVP thus far, but there’s still time to turn things around. If it isn’t him, maybe it will be Michael Harris II.
As for pitchers, all four past leaders were starting pitchers, with three of those being the one most reliable Braves starters of their era. Also, Jaret Wright. 2004 was WEIRD.
The easiest path here is to go with Max Fried and call it a day, but what’s the fun in that? Maybe his hot start isn’t a fluke and Reynaldo Lopez is the pitching leader in 2024? Who’d have seen that one coming in early March?
The history:
1984: Dale Murphy (5.5 bWAR), Rick Mahler (5.1 bWAR)
1994: Greg Maddux (8.1 bWAR), Fred McGriff (4.6 bWAR)
2004: J.D Drew (8.3 bWAR), Jaret Wright (2.7 bWAR)
2014: Jason Heyward (5.5 bWAR), Julio Teheran (4.2 bWAR)
Yikes
Last year, at this point, we took a look at each of seasons that made up the last four “4’s” for the Atlanta Braves. That is going to happen again this year, just in a different article.
Given how this piece ended up sounding like a motivational speech given by Oscar the Grouch, this is your reminder that like every financial planning ad, past performance by the BPA may not be an indicator of future results.
Next