With bigger bases coming in 2023, many expect more base stealing. How will Blue Jays’ catchers respond to this?
The Toronto Blue Jays traded Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks as part of the cost of obtaining Daulton Varsho. In doing so, they got rid of a guy who threw out 41% of MLB would be base stealers. Sure, his 2022 sample of 147 innings is small, but he has the arm:
Some pretty impressive metrics on Gabriel Moreno's first attempt to throw out a base-stealer at MLB level
Pop time: 1.83 seconds (98th percentile)
Velocity: 81.3 mph (94th percentile) pic.twitter.com/WC3ujFBOSz— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) June 11, 2022
Trading away Moreno leaves Toronto with the backstop duo of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. It’s a pair that I’ve already extolled the offensive virtues of, but an interesting question was posed to me on Twitter (it appears there is still reason to use that dumpster fire of an app).
The single biggest weakness for the Jays in 2023 will be allowing 2B steals. With modified rules, steal attempts will skyrocket this year and we traded away one of the best throwing catching arms in the game. Everyone will try to run on our Jays. Going to be interesting.
— RapsLeafsJays (@RapsLeafsJays) February 11, 2023
OK, so it wasn’t really a question, but @RapsLeafsJays does bring up an interesting idea: will the Blue Jays’ catchers struggle to hold off the impending onslaught of stolen bases? And, it looks like there definitely will be more attempts. Anthony Castrovince wrote:
When we talk about speed with regard to the pitch timer, which is coming to MLB in 2023, we are typically talking about the pace of game. In the 2022 Minor League season, the pitch timer cut the average game time by 25 minutes.
But the pickoff/step-off rule paired with the pitch timer also injected speed of a different sort into MiLB. In 2021, an experimentation with pickoff and step-off limits at the A-ball level and larger bases at the Triple-A level contributed to a rise in both stolen-base attempts and the stolen-base success rate.
In 2022, with the mound disengagement limits, pitch timer and bigger bases imposed across the full-season Minor Leagues, the uptick in action on the basepaths continued:
YEAR: SBA/G (SB%)
2019: 2.23 (68.2)
2021: 2.52 (75.7)
2022: 2.81 (78)
No MiLB season in 2020 due to pandemic.
So, yeah, thieves are doing their stretches as we speak. In 2022, we saw 5 players steal 30 or more bases. Jorge Mateo led the way with 35. There were 13 players who stole 20 or more bases. Obviously, no one is going to turn into Rickey Henderson and steal 130 (!!!!!) bases in a season, but we very well could see one or two players approaching 50. More than likely, we’ll see an increase in overall totals as teams start to embrace the stolen base as part of their offensive attack.
If that is the case, Toronto will have to respond without their best base thrower outer. However, are Jansen and Kirk going to be as big a concern as @RapsLeafsJays fears? To answer this question, I wanted to provide a frame of reference, so I used 2022 SB and CS totals. But, I also wanted to look at metrics that measure what a catcher can actually contribute to the whole dance that is the stolen base, so I went with Pop Time (to second base) (how long it takes the catcher to release the ball once caught). Then I looked at a new metric for me: rSB, which ‘measures, in runs, how a catcher compares to the average catcher in terms of preventing stolen bases, it gives the catcher credit for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting steals in the first place.’ That might be the ultimate metric and the others are just there for garnish. But, here is what we have:
Both Jansen and Kirk have slightly below league average Pop Time scores. For what it’s worth, Moreno’s 1.92 put him 10th in all of MLB and Varsho recorded a Pop Time of 1.96, better than both Kirk and Jansen. For reference, the best Pop Time in all of MLB last year was from J.T. Realmuto who saw a 1.82. His rSB was 9. In all honesty, the above numbers aren’t all that terrible. Jansen and Kirk certainly aren’t Realmuto, but there is certainly nothing here that would suggest a massive base crime spree in 2023 compared to last season.
Of course, catchers cannot be the only part of this equation. We often hear a runner stole a base off the pitcher, which happens a lot. An exaggerated delivery here, a lapse in concentration there and a pitcher can give away a base, as opposed to it being stolen. So, in order to round out the discussion, it would be nice to take a look at some key pitchers to see if they’ll make things more difficult for their battery mate.
However, as advanced as metrics are, I am unable to find a value for the time it takes a pitcher to come set, wind up and release the ball. Statcast does have a measurement of Pitch Tempo, but that isn’t helpful as it simply measures the time between pitches. However, Statcast does offer this breakdown: “About six seconds elapses from “start of delivery” to “receiving return throw”: 1.5 seconds to release the pitch, 0.5 seconds for pitcher-to-catcher, 4.0 seconds for catcher-back-to-pitcher”. Baseball America wrote about this back in 2012 and there is an interesting tidbit:
A base stealer takes about 3.2 seconds to steal a base. Obviously, with bigger bases, and a base path reduction of 4.5 inches, that time could go down slightly. If a runner is going off a pitcher’s movement, almost half the time it takes to steal a base is eaten up by the pitch itself. That leaves it up to the catcher to make up the difference. If we subtract the 1.5 seconds from the 3.2 seconds it takes to steal, keeping in mind that 3.2 is a rough number and a number on the fast end of the spectrum, we get approximately 1.7 seconds to throw out a runner. That’s a Pop Time of 1.7, which if is the real case, catchers everywhere should be concerned, not just in Toronto. It seems almost unfair.
That is why pitchers are going to have to work on their pick off moves and their time to the plate. That makes the following rule change that Castrovince discusses very interesting:
The rule used across the Minors in 2022 is as follows: The pitcher can step off the mound or attempt a pickoff twice during a plate appearance without penalty. If the pitcher successfully attempts a third pickoff attempt, the runner is out. If the pitcher unsuccessfully attempts a third pickoff attempt, the runner automatically advances on a balk.
(This same rule will be in place in MLB in 2023. However, in the big leagues, the “disengagement limit” will reset if a runner advances during the plate appearance.)
Interestingly, MLB research found that, at the big league level, less than 2 percent of plate appearances with a runner on base include three or more pickoff attempts. So the rule might not be as disruptive as one would assume.
But there’s no doubt that it impacts the psychology of both pitcher and runner.
Pitchers will be on the hook for this increased thievery just as much as catchers, if not more. The role of the catcher hasn’t changed with the rules, but the same cannot be said for pitchers. The pressure is on them. But, what kind of pressure, and how much, are we talking about here? We might be worried about nothing.
Castrovince points out that the minor leagues saw a 26% increase in stolen base attempts compared to 2019, which is when the pitch clock went into effect. Because of that, he guesses we’ll see an increase of 25% in the big leagues this season. That works out to approximately 1.7 more attempts per game. As a fan, I say bring it on. Over the last few years, you could watch multiple games and not see a single attempt. Those days may be over! I’d welcome it, even if it means more stolen bases against my team.
With the increase in exciting attempts at theft, comes an increase in the pressure to limit it. Teams will have to figure out how to shave seconds off their delivery, etc. The good news is that it is not all on the catchers. The even better news for Blue Jays fans is that even if it were, we’re not facing disaster with Jansen and Kirk. If their pitchers do their job, their slightly below average Pop Time is still good enough to allow them to limit most of the damage. Sure, we’ll see more stolen bases against Toronto, but that will be true of every team. Toronto won’t be in a worse way in 2023.
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The post How Will Blue Jays Catchers Respond to More Stealing? first appeared on Jays From The Couch.
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